gapolitics.net

Through most of a 2007 legislative session that was disastrous for the Georgia Republican Party, freshman Lt. Governor Casey Cagle came out looking better than anyone. He was repeatedly covered by the press as a statesman focused on bi-partisanship, and an elected official who would bridge the deepening divide between Republicans and Democrats at the Capitol. Democratic State Senators were falling over themselves to praise him in public and in private for how he was managing the affairs of the Senate. Many elected officials of both parties, journalists and other interested persons tagged Cagle as a very strong candidate for the 2010 Republican gubernatorial nomination who would be very tough to beat in the general election.

Today Governor Perdue line-item vetoed a property tax cut, and Cagle sided with him publicly. Cagle has thrown his lot in with a Governor increasingly unpopular with the Republican base, and is on the record against a tax cut. We can only imagine what other GOP gubernatorial aspirants are thinking today.

How badly does this hurt Cagle in the 2010 GOP gubernatorial sweepstakes, if at all?

After a fast start, this blog totally petered out.

I'm going to try to get it going again.

Congressmen Jim Marshall of the 8th District and John Barrow of the 12th District ran great campaigns, holding on to seats redrawn to defeat them by the Republican General Assembly. Both faced former Members of Congress who had recently represented large portions of their districts, and who were supported by a massive onslaught of money from the national Republican Party committees and allied independent groups. You may recall that President Bush, who is (or should we say "was"?) still popular in Georgia outside metro Atlanta, visited both districts repeatedly during the final stages of the 2006 campaign.

Presumably the Republicans will target both seats in 2008. Who are we hearing as possible opponents?

Senate President Pro Tem Eric Johnson has responded to the ethics complaint filed against State Rep. Larry O'Neal by Edward Chapman, a former researcher for the state Democratic Party. Chapman alleges a conflict of interest by O'Neal when he successfully pushed an amendment to a 2005 tax bill that saved a client of his law practice, who happens to be Governor Perdue, over $100,000 in capital gains taxes.

Johnson says that the complaint must be sworn. Johnson also provides Chapman with some free legal advice, even though Johnson is a developer and until recently an architect who specialized in designing government buildings (big surprise). According to InsiderAdvantage, when responding to Chapman, Johnson wrote, "If you are not familiar with the verification process, you should contact an attorney. An attorney will be able to assist you in this process and explain to you the consequences of swearing falsely in Georgia."

Quite the thug move, Eric. Considering it's a certainty that a notarized complaint will be refiled, your stunt won't do anything other than delay the inevitable and generate more news coverage. Nice try though.

You may have noticed during his State of the Union speech that President Bush mentioned Georgia Congressman Charlie Norwood and South Dakota Senator Tim Johnson as Members of Congress not in attendance due to illness. A check of the House Roll Call votes indicates that Norwood has not voted since January 5.

Georgia circles on Capitol Hill are buzzing about whether Norwood, the long time 10th District Republican incumbent, will be able to finish this term in Congress. Norwood has admirably perserved through major health challenges in recent years, including transplant surgery.

As is often the case in the tough world that is politics, the manuevering for a possible special election has already started. We hear that the House Democrats have decided to take a shot in the event of a special election, considering their majority-induced financial advantage. A low turnout special likely offers the best chance for a Democrat to pick up a seat with such a strong Republican lean (although not as strong as is sometimes assumed).

With candidates jumping into the Presidential nominating contests for both parties, people are now picking sides. Among Republicans, as reported in the media over the last several weeks, outgoing state Republican Party chair Alec Poitevint is with John McCain, and former Perdue Chief of Staff and Bush Ranger/Georgia Chair Eric Tanenblatt is with Mitt Romney. From what I've heard, Ralph Reed is with Rudy Giuliani.

There has been less publicity surrounding Democrats' presidential choices. Former Senator Max Cleland is presumably still with his close friend John Kerry, and former Governor Roy Barnes is with John Edwards, who had a fundraising lunch in Georgia last week. Also seen at the Edwards event were outgoing Democratic Party Chair Bobby Kahn, McKenna, Long & Aldridge lawyer Keith Mason (a Clinton White House official and former gubernatorial chief of staff for Zell Miller), his father Wayne Mason, and Brooke Jackson, daughter of the late Atlanta Mayor Maynard Jackson. Several Democratic legislators were also present, including Senate Minority Leader Robert Brown, House Minority Leader DuBose Porter, Senator Doug Stoner, Rep. Rob Teilhet and Rep. Stephanie Stuckey Benfield.

I've heard that McKenna, Long & Aldridge partner Gordon Giffin, former Ambassador to Canada, is backing Hillary Clinton, and former Congressman Buddy Darden, also at McKenna, is with New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson. Former Senator Sam Zamarrippa is also active with Richardson's campaign.

In 2002, the argument long made by Republicans finally worked. For decades, Georgia Republicans argued that the Democrats' iron fisted rule had gone on too long, and that the result was an out of touch political class in Atlanta that ignored the will of the people.

Sonny Perdue exploited this sentiment masterfully, patiently arguing that Roy Barnes, Tom Murphy, Charles Walker, and the rest of the Democratic establishment at the Gold Dome was beyond hope, and that Georgians should take a chance on him. Perdue's use of the state flag, while a racial issue at its core, was more than that. It was the perfect symbol for advancing his argument. Ultimately, Barnes' decision to change the flag was seen as a betrayal by many of those who put him in office. He had sided with the Atlanta establishment, both its political/civil rights establishment and its big business community. He sided with the Atlanta establishment against white voters outside the metro area. Unlike many other Southern states, the Georgia Democrats had, until 2002, held on to a coalition that united white small town and rural voters (most of whom are conservative) with African-Americans. The flag change was not just about race - it was about class and social status. It was about whose interests and desires a politician (and political party) out first. White voters outside core metro Atlanta decided that the Democratic Party no longer put their desires first, and they left for the Republicans, and have not returned. One only needs to compare Barnes' percentages and vote totals in counties outside core metro Atlanta in 1998 and 2002 to see the dramatic shift that took place.

Hopefully it will allow a more open discussion of Georgia politics, government and current events than we get on some other blogs around here.